The Domino Effect: How the Transformation of the Middle East Is Reshaping Security in the South Caucasus and NATO’s Eastern Flank

The Domino Effect: How the Transformation of the Middle East Is Reshaping Security in the South Caucasus and NATO's Eastern Flank
Conference | 25 March 2026 | 9:30-15:00 | Warsaw
Organised by The Opportunity Institute for Foreign Affairs in cooperation with the European Council on Foreign Relations

Amid intensifying geopolitical competition and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the South Caucasus is undergoing a profound transformation. Developments such as the high-intensity war, between the United States, Israel, and Iran , the pacification of the Gaza Strip, shifting U.S. and EU engagement, Turkey's expanding regional role, and Russia's declining capacity to act as a stabilising force are reshaping the security architecture of the region. As a result, the South Caucasus is increasingly linked to a broader arc of instability stretching from the Eastern Mediterranean to NATO's eastern flank. In addition, the US-Israel-Iran war has spilled directly into the South Caucasus and NATO territory. Iran has launched drone strikes on Azerbaijani targets, and ballistic missiles fired toward Turkish airspace have been intercepted by NATO air defenses on multiple occasions.

In this evolving context, The Opportunity Institute for Foreign Affairs is convening a closed expert seminar to examine how strategic dynamics in the Middle East are spilling over into the South Caucasus and what this "domino effect" means for Euro-Atlantic security. The discussion will focus on the implications for regional stability, connectivity and critical infrastructure, energy security, as well as for NATO and EU policies in their eastern neighbourhood.

The Domino Effect

The seminar will bring together experts in security policy, regional studies, defence, energy, and European affairs, as well as representatives of academia, think tanks, public administration, and diplomatic staff. Participants will address key questions, including:

• How do the war, between the United States, Israel, and Iran, and another conflicts and strategic competition in the Middle East influence security dynamics in the South Caucasus?
• What are the risks of renewed escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the current geopolitical environment?
• How does instability in these regions affect Euro-Atlantic security, including NATO's eastern flank?
• What role can NATO, the EU, and regional partners play in stabilising the region and strengthening resilience against hybrid threats?
• How should Poland and its Allies adapt their policies to manage growing interconnected security challenges?

Participants will also assess how the South Caucasus fits into broader strategic calculations concerning energy corridors, trade routes, and infrastructure connectivity. Particular attention will be given to the region's importance for European energy security and its exposure to geopolitical pressure and hybrid threats.

A key element of the seminar will be the identification of mechanisms through which instability propagates across regions, as well as the development of forward-looking scenarios for the next 12-24 months. The discussion will allow for the comparison of threat perceptions among different actors, helping to identify convergences, divergences, and potential areas for cooperation.

The seminar will conclude with the formulation of practical, policy-oriented recommendations for decision-makers in Poland, NATO, and the European Union. The discussion will be conducted under the Chatham House Rule to ensure an open and substantive exchange of views.

Post-seminar report:

Following the event, The Opportunity Institute for Foreign Affairs will prepare an analytical report summarising the key findings, insights, and recommendations developed during the discussion. The report will be available on the Institute's website.

Venue: Warsaw City Center - to be announced to the confirmed participants
Date: 25 March 2026
Format: Closed expert roundtable (participation subject to confirmation)

Agenda (subject to change):

9:30 - Registration open

9:50 - 10:00 - Opening

10:00 - 11:10 - Panel 1: New Middle East, New South Caucasus: "The Domino Effect" in the Midst of the US-Israel-Iran War and the Red Lines of Superpowers and Regional Powers

Regional balance in the Middle East and the risk of further escalation of conflicts. How do the US-Israel-Iran war, Turkey's power projection, changes in US involvement, and Russia's weakening affect the security architecture of the South Caucasus? The perspective of superpowers and regional powers and the logic of "spillover" conflicts.

11:00 - 11:30 - Coffee Break

11:40 - 12:40 - Panel 2: Armenia-Azerbaijan: Between Agreement and Another Crisis

Scenarios for stabilization and escalation after the third Karabakh war in the context of changes in the Middle East and the Euro-Atlantic system. Domestic political aspects of policy-making towards the conflict. Georgia's role in the changing local and international environment. Regional perspective.

12:40 - 13:40 - Lunch Break

13:40 - 14:50 - Panel 3: From the Middle East to NATO's Eastern Flank: Implications for the Security of Europe and Poland

How does instability in the Middle East and the Caucasus affect Euro-Atlantic security? Significance for the West. Hybrid threats, resilience, NATO partnerships, and Poland's role. Security of transport connections and energy routes between Europe, Caucasus, and the Middle East, including potential closure or severe disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.

14:50 - 15:00 Conclusion of the Conference